Action

S&P 500 is +8.1% above its 200-day trend (+1.8% vs 50-day)

· Yield curve: normal

· Labor market: strong

· 20d realized vol: 8% · calm

· S&P +8.1% vs 200-day (+1.8% vs 50-day)

**Macro Narrative: The “Higher-for-Longer” Growth Regime** The Treasury curve is steepening with a normal shape, but 10Y and 30Y yields near 4.8-5.25% signal that term premium is back—this is not a recession warning, it’s a fiscal supply and growth scare. With unemployment at 4.1% and labor strong, the Fed is on hold. The steepener says: *growth is fine, but long-duration risk is expensive.* **Risk Appetite:** Constructive, but selective. Don’t chase bond-proxy equities. Favor cyclical value, financials, and industrials—they benefit from steep curves and solid labor. Short-duration cash is still competitive, so equity upside must come from earnings, not multiple expansion. **Sector Rotation:** Overweight banks, energy, and capital goods. Underweight long-duration tech and utilities. If 10Y breaks 5%, defensive equity beta will get crushed. Stay nimble.

Context, not a timing call — no equity trend rule has cleared our backtests (BTC's has; see the Crypto tab). Auto-Pilot throttles new buys in defensive tapes on its own. Trend gauge is our own price-trend composite (breadth + momentum + trend distance) — not a sentiment index; realized vol carries the fear side.